Eye on the storm - Hurricane awareness guide

By Emery Jeffreys

Hurricane experts warn residents of the Southeast to expect an especially active storm season in the Atlantic this year. As many as seven storms might strike the U.S. coastline during this hurricane season.

Philip Klotzbach, a research associate at Colorado State University, acknowledges that similar predictions for the 2006 season were wrong, but said he still believes there will be a more active storm cycle this year.

"Last year, we had the late El Niño that increased the shear," Klotzbach said. El Niño is a major warming of the equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño events usually occur every 3 to 7 years, and are characterized by shifts in "normal" weather patterns.

The shear or wind pattern produced by El Niño hampers formation of hurricanes in the eastern Atlantic. The occurrence of El Niño is unpredictable. Combine that unpredictability with an active hurricane cycle during the past decade or so, and it leads to forecasts that are sometimes wrong.

"It's like any forecast," Klotzbach said. "No self respecting forecaster can say for sure. There is a degree of uncertainty. We didn't predict very well last year."

Klotzbach said that 2006 turned out to be an average year.

The Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June 1 to November 30, averages 9.6 named storms, with 5.9 of them becoming hurricanes — 2.3 major hurricanes.

In 2006, there were 10 named storms in the Atlantic, of which five became hurricanes. None of the hurricanes made landfall in the United States, the first time since 2001 that has happened.

The first named storm of 2007, Subtropical Storm Andrea, formed off the Southeastern U.S. coast — more than three weeks before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season.

For years, weather forecasters and emergency management officials have urged 50 million coastal residents to be prepared for an approaching storm. They say millions of residents often ignore scientific predictions until the last minute, waiting to make life or death decisions about evacuations.

"Whether the prediction is for a below or above average season," Klotzbach said, "have a plan in place. Know what to do. If you are living in a coastal area, heed the advice of emergency officials."

Thousands of people along the gulf coast learned hard lessons in 2005.

Katrina formed over the Bahamas on Aug. 23, 2005, and crossed southern Florida at Category 1 intensity. It strengthened quickly into a Category 5 hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico becoming, at that time, the strongest hurricane ever recorded in the gulf.

The 2005 season caused $100 billion in damages and at least 1,923 deaths. Five of the season's six major hurricanes to make landfall — Dennis, Emily, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma — were responsible for most of the destruction.

The Mexican state of Quintana Roo, Florida and Louisiana were each struck twice by major hurricanes; Cuba, Mississippi, Texas, and Tamaulipas were each struck once and in each case brushed by at least one other.

Klotzbach and his colleague at Colorado State, Dr. William Gray, issued their most recent prediction May 31, forecasting a "very active" season with 17 named storms, including nine hurricanes — five intense hurricanes.

The May 31 estimate marked no change from their forecast issued in April.

Klotzbach said there is a 74 percent chance of a major hurricane striking the United States, with a 49 percent chance of it hitting along the Gulf Coast between the Florida Panhandle and Brownsville, Texas.

The latest forecast marks a major change. Klotzbach is now the principal author of the report for the second year. Gray is now studying his prime interest of global warming.

Many continue to blame the rise in hurricane activity since 1995 on global warming.

Klotzbach insists global warming has a minimal impact on the increase in hurricanes.

"We've seen periods in the past when it has warmed up," he said. "We're in a warm climate. The globe is certainly warming. It's never stationary and what is occurring is natural," he said.

He also said that it is difficult to assess the cycle of warming and cooling because of old weather records. Before the advent of hurricane hunter aircraft, there could have been storms in the Atlantic that nobody knew about.

He attributes the increased hurricane activity to:

• The north Atlantic has been warm since 1995 and is part of a 25- to 35-year cycle.

• When there are warm tropical waters, there is less wind shear across the tropical Atlantic. Wind shear tends to break up tropical storm formation.

The season runs from June 1 to November 30.

• Hurricane names through 2007
• Satellite video of Hurricane Isabel